Predicting the future of the smartphone market with Twitter

Predicting the future of the smartphone market with Twitter

Our last post discussed how the Influence Engine can deliver valuable market intelligence by detecting hidden market structures and relationships in Web data.

This post moves the debate on significantly by examining how social web data can predict the future of markets and brands.

Our world is increasingly shaped by a vast army of bloggers, website authors and social media users that have created a massively complex ‘online ecology’ of opinion, content and debate.

There is growing recognition that some aspects of this online ecology, like social web activity, have a sincere ability to reflect hidden patterns of relationship and behaviour within human activity.

But perhaps even more surprising is the growing body of evidence that suggests the same online ecology can accurately predict (or at least pre-figure) the future of brands and markets.

This isn’t science fiction or some kind of digital voodoo, but a natural outcome of the latest complex systems science and network analysis technology.

Dollywagon has been studying this phenomena and has used the Influence Engine to map structures and patterns of web activity within many different markets, communities and fields of interest.

This case study focuses on the Smartphone market sector and presents our recent R&D efforts to investigate the ability of social web data to predict market and brand outcomes. The data driving this image was collected from Twitter back in April 2010 over a four week period.

It reveals the underlying strength of the iPhone’s consumer proposition. It provides a clear diagnosis (and prognosis) of the problems facing Nokia and yields an early indication or prediction of Android’s current market success.

Click here to view our case study.

Here are some other recent examples from academic (rather than commercial) teams that demonstrate current interest in this topic:

Hedge Fund Will Track Twitter to Predict Stock Moves

Researchers successfully predict stock market by analysing 10m Tweets

HP Labs: Predicting movie box office success with social media

As always, we love to hear your thoughts and feedback. Please feel free to use the comments box at the foot of the page.

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